Rent vs. own: Between a rock and a hard place

Finding affordable housing may be the toughest financial challenge that most Silicon Valley residents face. Whether you rent or own your home, the last few months have not been good.

Caught by the nationwide mortgage meltdown, in Santa Clara County alone tens of thousands of homeowners are at risk of losing their homes. This chart pretty much says it all:

According to foreclosures.com, 3,133 Santa Clara County homeowners received notices of default on their mortgages in the first quarter on 2008 -- an increase of 64% over the first quarter of last year, and five times the number of defaults in Q1 of 2001. (A notice of default is the first step in the foreclosure process; not all of these homes will end up in foreclosure.)

Renters are feeling the pain too.(Continued...)
To afford a modest 2-bedroom apartment for their family, a worker in Santa Clara County must earn a minimum of $24.87 per hour, according to a study released last week by Housing California and the National Low Income Housing Coalition. That's $51,720 annually. At least a third of all county households had incomes below that standard last year.

And there's worse: these numbers are based on the "Fair Market Rent" for 2008, which was set by federal agency HUD at 40% of median rent last year -- $1,293 for a 2-BR in Santa Clara County. But as more families lose their homes or are reluctant to buy, there are more folks looking to rent, so rents have been shooting up. In San Jose, rents rose by an estimated 14.5% last year and are projected to grow another 7.8% this year, according to the Business Journal.

In addition to rising rents, renters are also being hit by the fallout of the mortgage crisis. The New York Times reported on Sunday that even renters are not immune from the mortgage crisis; as landlords are hit by foreclosures, tenants are increasingly being forced out of their homes. The NYT quotes Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, saying, "Landlords of all stripes could potentially get caught up in this very severe downturn. I suspect that it's going to be more of a problem for lower- to middle-income markets."

Local nonprofit organizations like Neighborhood Housing Services Silicon Valley, Project Sentinel, and ACORN Housing are urgently trying to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. If you are having trouble keeping up with your mortgage, or believe you may have been the victim of predatory lending, contact one of these agencies -- they may be able to help. Project Sentinel also helps renters.

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Silicon Valley Jobs Report: Job growth slows, but remains positive; housing crisis impacts economy

Today's employment report from the state shows that the San Jose metro region lost 13,100 jobs last month. This isn't nearly as bad as it sounds: we always lose jobs in January, as retailers and others lay off the extra help they hired on for the holiday season.

However, with just a 1.3% increase in jobs since Jan. 2007, this month's employment continued to show evidence of a slowdown in Silicon Valley. The annual growth rate peaked in September 2006 at 2.8%, and has been on the decline ever since (see graph).(Continued...)

Job growth is still positive, but at just over 1% it is unlikely to keep up with the growth of the working-age population. The jobs picture may well continue to weaken, driven by actions like the recent layoffs at Yahoo and planned layoffs at the Mercury News, both of which won't show up in the jobs data until next month.

Sheila Bair, chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), warned last week that "Silicon Valley is not immune" to the economic challenges brought on by the national mortgage crisis. With foreclosures exceeding home sales in California last month, industries tied to the housing market are feeling the pain. Construction firms in Silicon Valley lost 500 jobs in January, and the financial activities sector dropped 1,200 jobs.

In more encouraging news, Silicon Valley added 4,500 manufacturing jobs in the past year: a small but significant reversal of the decade's trend of devastating losses in manufacturing, the region's largest employment sector.

Highlights of the local jobs report:

• The San Jose metro area lost 13,100 non-farm jobs in January, due in part to seasonal declines. The retail sector eliminated 3,500 jobs, accompanied by declines of 2,500 jobs in leisure and hospitality (mostly in restaurants), 1,900 jobs in construction, and 1,600 jobs in professional & business services.


• Over the year, the San Jose metro area added 11,400 jobs, a 1.3% increase from January 2007.


• The biggest year-over-year gains were in manufacturing (+4,500 jobs), educational & health services (+3,300 jobs), trade, transportation & utilities, which includes retail (+2,000 jobs), information (+1,900 jobs), and government (+1,000 jobs).


• The construction and financial activities sectors -- both strongly tied to the housing market -- continued to weaken, with construction losing 500 jobs over the year and financial activities losing 1,200 jobs. The region also lost 300 jobs in leisure & hospitality and 100 jobs in professional & business services.


• For January 2008, the unemployment rate stood at 5.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month and up 0.5 points over the year. That translates to 4,900 more unemployed residents (by official measures) than in January 2007.


• Seven years after the tech crash, Silicon Valley holds 151,000 fewer jobs than it did in January 2001.

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The ballooning housing crisis: San Jose, Morgan Hill and Gilroy most at risk

Thousands of Silicon Valley families have lost their homes to the ongoing housing crisis, with ten of thousands more impacted as the ripple effects of the crisis continue to spread. Sunday's Mercury News mapped out foreclosures in Santa Clara County so far this year, focusing on the hard-hit East Side neighborhoods of San Jose. Unfortunately, the picture of the housing crisis in Silicon Valley is even worse than revealed by foreclosures alone.

A Working Partnerships analysis of houses currently in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure shows where we can expect more families to face losing their homes in the coming months.

San Jose and South County both have reason for concern: in San Jose, 38.7 houses per every 10,000 residents are currently in foreclosure or pre-foreclosure, with an even higher rate of 43.9 per 10,000 in Morgan Hill and a shocking 62.3 per 10,000 in Gilroy. (Los Altos, on the other hand, is getting along fine with just 3.6 per 10,000.)

Not everyone who's currently in pre-foreclosure (those who, after one or more payments, have received a Notice of Default on their loan) will ultimately have their home foreclosed upon. Some will be able to sell and pay off the mortgage, work out a deal to give up the house without a formal foreclosure, or in the best case scenario, find the money to bring the mortgage current and keep their house. But unless they get help, all of the homeowners currently in pre-foreclosure will be struggling to pay their bills and save their homes.

And the problem won't end there; the biggest wave of ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) rate resets is projected to continue through the end of 2008 and possibly the first half of 2009, sparking still more foreclosures.

Given how many American families have been or will be impacted by the housing crisis, President Bush's proposal for selective, voluntary rate freezes by lenders is wholly inadequate to the scope of the problem. The Federal Reserve's proposal today looks like it may help to curb some of the worst abuses (something the Fed should have stepped forward to do a long time ago), but also does not adequately tackle the big picture. We need to help those currently affected, fix the laws and practices that encouraged irresponsible or predatory mortgage loans, and make homeownership affordable for working families. The Center for Responsible Lending discusses proposals that could help embattled homeowners and help prevent this crisis from recurring.

On a local scale, homeowners who need help can contact Neighborhood Housing Services Silicon Valley, Project Sentinel, or ACORN Housing.

(Thanks to Brian Darrow for the map.)

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